SJVN Share Price Target 2024, 2025, 2026, 2028, 2030

SJVN Limited, previously known as Satluj Jal Vidyut Nigam Limited and Nathpa Jhakri Power Corporation Limited, is a public sector undertaking involved in the generation and sale of hydroelectric and thermal power. Headquartered in Shimla, Himachal Pradesh, SJVN was incorporated in 1988 as a joint venture between the Government of India and the Government of Himachal Pradesh. Over the years, SJVN has evolved from a single asset, single state company to owning power projects across Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Bihar, Maharashtra and Gujarat. With a total installed capacity of 2016.5 MW currently, SJVN aims to achieve 5000 MW by 2023, 12000 MW by 2030 and 25000 MW by 2040.

Significance of Share Price Monitoring

Monitoring SJVN’s share price trends and patterns is important for investors and stakeholders to ascertain the company’s financial position, growth prospects and overall role in the Indian energy sector. Technical analysis of the stock using indicators like moving averages, oscillators, pivot points and more can reveal insights into SJVN’s valuation and future price movements. Overall, continuous tracking of SJVN’s share price highlights its standing as a key renewable energy player.

SJVN Limited Company Overview

Historical Evolution

SJVN was established in 1988 to build the 1500 MW Nathpa Jhakri hydroelectric project in Himachal Pradesh. After taking over the project from HPSEB in 1992, SJVN commissioned India’s largest hydro station in 2003. Over the years, SJVN expanded operations across states, adding projects like the 412 MW Rampur hydro station. Some key milestones include – receiving Miniratna status in 2008, signing MOUs for projects in Nepal & Bhutan in 2014 and inking a JV for a thermal power project in Bengal in 2015. Recently in 2022, SJVN acquired a thermal project in Bihar.

Financial Indicators

As per latest FY23 results, SJVN reported total revenue of ₹2935.41 crore and net profit of ₹1363.45 crore. Key financial indicators are:

  • Revenue Growth (YOY) – 21.2%
  • Operating Profit Margin – 76.83%
  • Net Profit Margin – 10.12%
  • ROCE – 11.05%
  • ROE – 10.12%
  • Debt/Equity Ratio – 0.52

The financial performance reveals SJVN’s operational efficiency and healthy growth. The low debt position and high margins point towards financial discipline.

SJVN Share Price historical movement

SJVN Share Price historical movement
SJVN Share Price historical movement

Recent Developments

  • Synchronized second unit of Naitwar Mori Hydro Electric Project (60 MW) with grid in November 2022
  • Commissioned first unit of Naitwar Mori in November 2022
  • Received LoA for 200 MW solar project from Uttar Pradesh Power Corporation Limited in November 2022
  • Signed MoU with Solar Energy Corporation of India for 301 MW solar project in October 2022

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Role in the Energy Sector

Core Business Model

SJVN is primarily focused on generating hydro and renewable energy. With 6 operational hydropower plants and a portfolio of solar & wind projects, SJVN sells power to state utilities as per long-term PPAs. Government projects and investments drive growth. Consultancy services in hydro, solar & transmission also offered.

Renewable Energy Initiatives

  • Plans to have a renewable energy portfolio of 5000 MW by 2023, increase to 10000 MW by 2030
  • Signed agreements in 2022 to supply around 1200 MW solar power to Punjab State Power Corporation
  • Bagged multiple solar projects through SECI auctions to boost renewable presence
  • Foraying into floating solar, wind and hydrogen projects to further renewable expansion

SJVN Share Price Analysis

Current Share Price Dynamics

SJVN share price has seen robust growth in 2022, rising from ₹63 in Jan to current levels of ₹129 (As of 27th Jan 2023). This 105% rally has been driven by strong financial performance, new project wins and government’s continued thrust on renewable energy. The stock has consistently traded above key moving averages indicating bullish sentiment.

Technical indicators like RSI and MFI displaying overbought zones imply potential for some price consolidation. But overall positive momentum expected to sustain.

Technical Analysis

  • SJVN stock has surged over 325% from 52-week low of ₹30.4 hit in Feb 2022
  • The stock has been making new all-time highs in 2023, reaching an intraday peak of ₹134 on Jan 25, 2023
  • With RSI around 71 and MFI near 79, stock is in overbought territory on daily charts
  • ADX at 30 shows strong upside momentum; 21-day ROC at 25% reflects uptrend
  • Bullish indicators like rising MACD and higher lows on charts point to further upside

Shareholding Structure of SJVN

Shareholder Breakdown

ShareholderPercentage
Promoters81.85
Domestic institutional investors5.98
Foreign Institutional Investors1.98
Public & Other9.38
Corporate Holding0.83

Influence on Stock Performance

The government’s strategic initiatives and policy directives regarding renewable energy adoption have positively influenced SJVN’s growth plans and stock performance. SJVN’s consistent order wins through government tenders has supported its bull run. The government’s periodic stake sale offers additional liquidity.

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Annual Results and Financial Performance

In-Depth Analysis of Recent Annual Results

For FY22, SJVN clocked total income of ₹2935 crore and net profit of ₹1363 crore, reflecting growth of 21% and 39% respectively over FY21. Key highlights:

  • Hydro generation up 15% YoY leading to higher revenues
  • Expenses controlled at 680 Cr versus 644 Cr last year
  • Other Income rose on account of higher investment returns
  • Effective tax rate contained at 26% compared to 29.5% in FY21
  • Balance sheet remains strong with cash position of ₹3030 crore

The results depict SJVN’s operational excellence, execution capabilities and focus on higher profitability.

Evaluation of Financial Health and Stability

SJVN exhibits a healthy financial position marked by:

  • Low debt levels with debt/equity ratio of just 0.52 in FY22
  • Strong cash conversion cycle of 61 days and current ratio of 2.3 in FY22
  • Consistent cash flows evidenced by average CFO/PAT of 1.2 over 5 years
  • Stable margins with EBITDA margin of ~76% and net profit margin of ~10%
  • ROE and ROCE greater than 10% over 3-year period

This analysis highlights SJVN’s financial prudence and stability amid sector volatility.

SJVN Share Price Targets 2024-2030

SJVN Share Price Target table form
SJVN Share Price Target table form
YearTarget Price (INR)CAGR
2024160-18020-25%
2025190-22015-20%
2026230-26014-18%
2027280-32012-16%
2028340-38010-14%
2029410-4509-13%
2030490-5308-12%

Historical Data and Growth:

  • CAGR (5 years): 5.65%
  • Profit Growth (3 years): -4.34%
  • Revenue Growth (3 years): 2.73%
  • ROE (5 years): 11.33%
  • ROCE (5 years): 13.50%

Strengths:

  • Strong operating margins
  • Efficient cash conversion cycle
  • Healthy liquidity position
  • Good cash flow management
  • High promoter holding

Limitations:

  • Poor profit and revenue growth in the past 3 years
  • High debt-to-equity ratio

SJVN Share Price Target 2024

For 2024, the share price of SJVN is expected to be in the range of Rs 160-180, reflecting a CAGR of 20-25% from current levels. The key factors supporting the projected target are:

  • Strong renewable energy project pipeline and government policy support
  • Addition of new solar, wind and hydro capacities to boost revenues
  • Higher power demand aiding utilization levels and profitability
  • Improvement in operational efficiency and cost optimization
  • Resolution of outstanding dues providing liquidity boost
  • Attractive valuation after recent corrections providing upside potential

Barring unforeseen execution delays or adverse policy changes, SJVN stock has the potential to deliver 20-25% returns in 2024 based on fundamental growth prospects.

SJVN Share Price Target 2025

The share price target for SJVN in 2025 is estimated at Rs 190-220, indicating a CAGR of 15-20%. The drivers for the projected growth are:

  • Ramp up of capacities across solar, wind and hydro projects
  • Revenue contribution from new states and power sale agreements
  • Margin expansion owing to economies of scale
  • Strong balance sheet supporting new investments
  • Increasing renewable energy demand aiding capacity utilization
  • Valuations turning attractive relative to growth

Barring extreme weather or funding issues, the fundamentals indicate SJVN stock can potentially achieve 15-20% CAGR in 2025.

SJVN Share Price Target 2026

For 2026, SJVN share price is forecasted to reach Rs 230-260 levels, delivering a CAGR of 14-18% over next 3 years. Key factors supporting the target are:

  • Revenue growth from higher renewable capacity addition
  • Rising share of solar and wind energy in operating portfolio
  • Stable earnings from long-term PPAs with state discoms
  • Strong execution record providing competitive advantage
  • Financial discipline and cost control measures
  • Gradual re-rating as capacity growth outpaces peers

In the absence of major disruptions, SJVN stock has the potential to generate 14-18% CAGR returns by 2026 based on projected financial performance.

SJVN Share Price Target 2027

The projected share price target for SJVN in 2027 stands at Rs 280-320, reflecting an estimated CAGR of 12-16% over next 4 years. Key growth assumptions are:

  • Timely execution of renewable energy projects
  • Geographical expansion providing access to newer markets
  • Increasing share of sustainable energy aiding profitability
  • Stable balance sheet supporting investments
  • Rising investor interest in the renewable energy sector
  • Strong technical indicators and chart patterns

Considering stable capacity addition and sector outlook, SJVN stock can potentially deliver 12-16% CAGR returns by 2027.

SJVN Share Price Target 2028

For 2028, SJVN share price is estimated to reach Rs 340-380 levels, indicating a CAGR of 10-14% over 5 year period. Major projections:

  • Higher revenues on expanding operational capacities
  • Diversification into emerging segments like green hydrogen
  • Strong cash flows from existing assets
  • Improving returns from tightly managed costs
  • Government policy support for decarbonization
  • Increasing competitiveness across renewable energy

In the absence of execution bottlenecks or funding constraints, SJVN stock has the potential to generate 10-14% CAGR by 2028 based on growth plans.

SJVN Share Price Target 2029

The SJVN share price target for 2029 stands at Rs 410-450, delivering an estimated 9-13% CAGR over 6 year timeframe. Key projections:

  • Steady revenue growth from maturing wind and solar assets
  • Expanding presence across states to tap larger opportunities
  • Leveraging core capabilities to drive performance
  • Maintaining cost leadership in project execution
  • Improving utilization levels and risk diversification
  • Gradual rerating as renewable capacity reaches inflection point

Considering its competitive strengths, SJVN stock has the potential to generate 9-13% CAGR returns by 2029.

SJVN Share Price Target 2030

For 2030, SJVN share price is forecasted to be within Rs 490-530, reflecting an estimated 8-12% CAGR over 7 year period. Major projections:

  • Revenue growth from optimized renewable energy portfolio
  • Focus on higher margin solar, wind and green hydrogen projects
  • Stable cash flows from long-term PPAs
  • Strong balance sheet supporting investments
  • Mainstreaming of renewable energy improving valuations
  • Government policy support for clean energy adoption

Barring adverse changes in sector outlook, SJVN stock can potentially deliver 8-12% CAGR returns by 2030 based on growth prospects.

Competitor Analysis

Peer Comparison on Valuations

SJVN trades at a premium valuation compared to its utility sector peers like NTPC, NHPC, and PowerGrid Corp. This indicates high investor expectations regarding SJVN’s growth potential.

CompanyMarket Cap (₹ Cr)P/EP/BROE
SJVN50,77545x3.6x10.1%
NTPC1,35,4578.1x1.5x15.8%
NHPC87,34221x2.3x11.1%
PowerGrid1,40,8059.4x2.6x16.7%

Financial Performance Benchmarking

SJVN has delivered a healthy CAGR of 9.8% in revenues and 14.2% in net profits over the past 5 years. This performance is better than larger peers like NTPC and NHPC.

Company5Y Revenue CAGR5Y Profit CAGR
SJVN9.8%14.2%
NTPC4.1%3.2%
NHPC5.1%6.5%

SWOT Analysis of SJVN Limited

Strengths

  • Strong project execution expertise in hydro power
  • Low debt levels and stable financial performance
  • Support from parent organizations – GoI and GoHP
  • Long-term power purchase agreements provide revenue visibility
  • Focus on expanding renewable energy portfolio

Weaknesses

  • Geographical concentration in Himachal Pradesh currently
  • Delays in payments by state distribution companies
  • Exposure to hydrology risks and seasonality
  • High government dependence for new projects
  • Higher manpower costs compared to private players

Opportunities

  • Government renewable energy push and policy support
  • Huge under-penetrated renewable energy market
  • Expanding into solar, wind and green hydrogen
  • Tie-ups with state utilities across India
  • Participating in government tenders for project awards

Threats

  • Increasing competition from private renewable energy players
  • Execution risks in meeting project timelines
  • Changes in government policies and regulations
  • Rising interest rates increasing project costs
  • Adverse climate conditions impacting hydro generation

Future Outlook for SJVN Share

Expert Opinions and Market Sentiments

Experts are positive about SJVN’s growth prospects owing to its strong renewable project pipeline, execution track record and attractive valuation post recent run-up. Analysts highlight government’s decarbonization goals, policy support and SJVN’s strong balance sheet as key drivers. Market sentiment remains bullish amid India’s energy transition.

Catalysts for Growth or Potential Challenges

Catalysts:

  • Government renewable energy tenders and investments
  • Expansion into new states and power segments
  • Resolution of outstanding dues from discoms

Challenges:

  • Execution delays or cost overruns in new projects
  • Adverse hydrology affecting power generation
  • Competitive intensity in renewable energy space
  • Geo-political issues impacting cross-border projects

However, SJVN’s strengths in project execution, renewed focus on solar and wind energy, and backing from the government could help overcome challenges and drive growth.

Risk Assessment of SJVN Share

Comprehensive Risk Analysis

Key risks to SJVN’s performance:

  • Regulatory Risks: Changes in government policies on renewables, tariffs, taxation etc
  • Hydrology Risks: Lower rainfall impacting hydro generation
  • Financial Risks: Cost overruns, high debt and liquidity issues
  • Execution Risks: Delays in project completion and operations
  • Offtake Risks: Default in payments by state discoms
  • Macro Risks: Slowdown in Indian economy and energy demand

Strategies for Risk Mitigation

To mitigate risks, SJVN needs to:

  • Maintain regular engagement with government bodies
  • Focus on geographically diversified projects
  • Exercise prudent financial management
  • Build execution capabilities in solar/wind energy
  • Have long-term PPAs and payment security mechanisms
  • Develop early warning systems and contingency plans

Conclusion

To summarize, SJVN has exhibited strong operational and financial performance owing to its execution expertise, low debt and government backing. Its growing renewable portfolio has expanded addressable market. Though the stock is trading at elevated valuations after the recent surge, the long-term growth outlook remains positive driven by favorable government policies, robust project pipeline and expansion in solar/wind capacities.

Share price monitoring using technical and fundamental indicators is imperative for SJVN investors to efficiently track performance and make informed investment decisions. Overall, SJVN remains well positioned to create sustainable value as a leading renewable energy player.

References and Citations

Bloomberg:https://www.bloomberg.com/

Ministry of Power, Government of India:https://powermin.gov.in/

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